Thank you so much for your post. It was very helpful. I wanted to clarify something. Based on your explanation, you don't expect the dates for EB2 India to move forward to due the unavailability of visa numbers in the EB2 ROW category. I wanted to ask if you similarly expect ROW EB2 date to remain stuck at the date set in the January 2023 bulletin, at least until the next fiscal year, or do you expect the date for the EB2 ROW to move forward somewhat and then maybe at some point become unavailable when all the visa numbers get used up. Thank you.
Thanks for your comment, Walle. I think you are tracking my thinking. I think that the date for EB2 ROW may stay the same for the rest of this fiscal year or become "unavailable" later in the year. And then in Oct 2023 (first month of FY2024), it may become current again, or it may move up at that time. Again, this is just my best guess and there is certainly no guarantee I am right. People who are seeking to pursue a green card through EB2 ROW will need to consider whether to go for EB3 (possible for PERM-based cases) or 'get in line' for EB2 NIW and hope the date becomes current soon.
A PERM-based candidate can sometimes pursue EB2 or EB3 whereas a PERM-exempt EB-2 NIW candidate must stick with EB2. There is no EB3 NIW....
Thanks for your comments. I should have elaborated but I felt the post was getting a bit long.
Generally the EB2 and EB3 India dates, particularly EB2, can move forward based on unused visas for other nationalities but USCIS is approving so many EB 485 cases that there are now cut-off dates for ROW. If there are cut-off dates for ROW, then there are not likely any extra visa numbers to overflow to India.
This means India EB2 and EB3 are basically stuck.
The existing cut-off date is already tied to the number of 485 cases pending.
But there are all kinds of strange variables - for example many some of the EB2 India cases will qualify for EB1 and leave the EB2 queue.
So my prediction here is not 100% guaranteed; just based on the notion that there won’t be overflow visas to go to India.
What is expected of the recent COVID blowup in China and consulates closing.
EB2 India remained flat for 2nd month after retrogression. What to expect of that, as many filers have been waiting for over 12 months. Shouldnt they already know if they have sufficient visa vs applicants to say lets keep it at Oct 2011 as for FY2023 we are all set or could there be more retrogression. Since EB3 india is already ahead, i would expect oppposite but god only knows. Madamus for those waiting for unreasobaly long (idk what the duration of unreasonable means anymore).
I don’t think very many consulates are closed worldwide - maybe some in China but that will not really impact the EB quota.
I-485 applications where the priority date is not current can be pending indefinitely. There were many EB2 Indians who 485s filed in 2012 and were not approved until 2020. The dates were backlogged 8 years!
Overall I think people who filed in Oct/Nov 2020 have been unrealistic about the 485 processing times. But with that said, clearly USCIS did not handle things well.
I think DOS should get more blame for such a huge increase to EB3 in Oct 2020. Why move the dates that way and then flip a year later?
Litigation could help. But only if a p-date is current.
I plan to do a separate post soon on people with 485s pending and p-date not current. Keep in mind EB 485s can only be approved based on Chart A on the V-Bulletin.
USCIS can choose either chart for 485 filings but only Chart A controls 485 approvals.
Thank you so much for your post. It was very helpful. I wanted to clarify something. Based on your explanation, you don't expect the dates for EB2 India to move forward to due the unavailability of visa numbers in the EB2 ROW category. I wanted to ask if you similarly expect ROW EB2 date to remain stuck at the date set in the January 2023 bulletin, at least until the next fiscal year, or do you expect the date for the EB2 ROW to move forward somewhat and then maybe at some point become unavailable when all the visa numbers get used up. Thank you.
Thanks for your comment, Walle. I think you are tracking my thinking. I think that the date for EB2 ROW may stay the same for the rest of this fiscal year or become "unavailable" later in the year. And then in Oct 2023 (first month of FY2024), it may become current again, or it may move up at that time. Again, this is just my best guess and there is certainly no guarantee I am right. People who are seeking to pursue a green card through EB2 ROW will need to consider whether to go for EB3 (possible for PERM-based cases) or 'get in line' for EB2 NIW and hope the date becomes current soon.
A PERM-based candidate can sometimes pursue EB2 or EB3 whereas a PERM-exempt EB-2 NIW candidate must stick with EB2. There is no EB3 NIW....
Thank you for the post. Why do you think EB2 dates will not move further during 2023? Reason was not clear to me.
Thanks for your comments. I should have elaborated but I felt the post was getting a bit long.
Generally the EB2 and EB3 India dates, particularly EB2, can move forward based on unused visas for other nationalities but USCIS is approving so many EB 485 cases that there are now cut-off dates for ROW. If there are cut-off dates for ROW, then there are not likely any extra visa numbers to overflow to India.
This means India EB2 and EB3 are basically stuck.
The existing cut-off date is already tied to the number of 485 cases pending.
But there are all kinds of strange variables - for example many some of the EB2 India cases will qualify for EB1 and leave the EB2 queue.
So my prediction here is not 100% guaranteed; just based on the notion that there won’t be overflow visas to go to India.
Hopefully that makes sense.
Simple question.
What is expected of the recent COVID blowup in China and consulates closing.
EB2 India remained flat for 2nd month after retrogression. What to expect of that, as many filers have been waiting for over 12 months. Shouldnt they already know if they have sufficient visa vs applicants to say lets keep it at Oct 2011 as for FY2023 we are all set or could there be more retrogression. Since EB3 india is already ahead, i would expect oppposite but god only knows. Madamus for those waiting for unreasobaly long (idk what the duration of unreasonable means anymore).
I don’t think very many consulates are closed worldwide - maybe some in China but that will not really impact the EB quota.
I-485 applications where the priority date is not current can be pending indefinitely. There were many EB2 Indians who 485s filed in 2012 and were not approved until 2020. The dates were backlogged 8 years!
Overall I think people who filed in Oct/Nov 2020 have been unrealistic about the 485 processing times. But with that said, clearly USCIS did not handle things well.
I think DOS should get more blame for such a huge increase to EB3 in Oct 2020. Why move the dates that way and then flip a year later?
Litigation could help. But only if a p-date is current.
I plan to do a separate post soon on people with 485s pending and p-date not current. Keep in mind EB 485s can only be approved based on Chart A on the V-Bulletin.
USCIS can choose either chart for 485 filings but only Chart A controls 485 approvals.