Visa Bulletin: EB-2 India will always disappoint!
Recent big movement in cut-off dates is not likely to continue (from May 2022 - posted again July 2022 as it is still true!)
There are 3 things that are certain in life -
1. Death;
2. Taxes; and
3. EB-2 India cut-off dates will disappoint you.
###
In the last few months, there has been significant forward movement in the cut-off dates for EB2 India on the visa bulletin and people are (in my view) incorrectly projecting that movement out into the future - as in, 'the EB-2 India dates moved forward 18 months in the last 2 visa bulletins and if that continues, I will be current this fall' -- My view is that this is WRONG THINKING. I mean, it would be great if that is true but I just don't think it is going to happen.
Let's review some things --
-- This fiscal year ends Sept 30, 2022. It is FY2022. This fiscal year has a special increased allotment of EB (employment-based) immigrant visas based on unused family-based immigrant visas from FY2021 (Oct 1, 2020, to Sept 30, 2021).
-- This special increased allotment of EB immigrant visas dies on 9/30/2022, and it is not likely there will be much of a special increased allotment in FY2023, meaning that the FY2023 allotment will be pretty close to par, which is 140,000.
-- The increased allotment is based on the fact that during the pandemic, the US consulates were largely closed and were not issuing immigrant visas and therefore the unused FB (family-based) immigrant visas "spilled over" to the EB quota for the next fiscal year.
-- But the US consulates are largely open and there would not appear to be a lot of unused FB immigrant visas to spillover. So this is likely the last year of largesse.
-- It is true that the FINAL ACTION CUT-OFF DATES for EB2 India have moved from April 2013 to Sept 2014 in the last 3 visa bulletins (April 2022, May 2022, June 2022). What I believe USCIS is trying to do is get as many people to re-upgrade from EB3 to EB2 to clear the decks of as many of the pending I-485 cases that were filed as downgrades in fall 2020.
-- I don't think that the EB2 cut-off date is going to really move much farther. In fact, if you look at the "Dates for Filing" chart - I think it is signaling that the EB2 India high water mark may end up Dec 1, 2014. (The EB3 India high water mark was Jan 1, 2015, in fall 2020).
-- Obscure but important and not often mentioned, but for the June 2022 visa bulletin, USCIS has announced using the FINAL ACTION chart, not the "Dates for Filing" chart. So in June 2022, it will be the first time in this fiscal year that USCIS is using the FINAL ACTION chart for adjustment of status. I believe that is a way that USCIS is signaling that they want to turn down the spigot of new I-485 applications.
-- I realize the above analysis is highly technical and probably as clear as mud; but the BOTTOM LINE IS THIS: If you are from India, do not assume that the forward movement of EB2 India is going to continue at the recent pace. Do not start making life plans based on it. Better to look at the pre-pandemic EB2 dates. See the comments.
###
