July 2024 Visa Bulletin Analysis
This post will attempt to explain the forward movement of EB-2 RoW and the backward movement of EB-3 RoW in the July 2024 Visa Bulletin.
This post relates to Employment-Based (EB) immigration. This post assumes you know something about the Visa Bulletin and cut-off dates.
If you are totally unfamiliar with how the Visa Bulletin works, or you need a refresher, you should review other posts in this newsletter.
You can find a primer on EB immigration and the Visa Bulletin here.
Even if you know how the Visa Bulletin generally works, understanding the month-to-month movement can remain an enigma.
This post will discuss the forward movement of EB-2 RoW (Rest of World) from June 2024 to July 2024, and the backward movement of EB-3 RoW during the same period.
This post will make an attempt (although likely futile) to anticipate the movement of EB-2 RoW and EB-3 RoW for the coming months.
If you know someone who is following the EB-2 RoW or EB-3 RoW cut-off dates, please consider sharing this post with them.
To review, in June 2024, the cut-off dates for EB-2 and EB-3 RoW (from Chart A) were:
EB-2 RoW = January 15, 2023
EB-3 RoW = November 22, 2022
ALSO: In the June 2024 Visa Bulletin, there were two ominous end notes that were basically identical for EB-2 RoW and EB-3 RoW:
D. VISA AVAILABILITY IN THE EMPLOYMENT-BASED SECOND (EB-2) PREFERENCE CATEGORY
High demand in the Employment Second category will most likely necessitate retrogression of the worldwide final action date (including Mexico and Philippines) in the next month to hold number use within the maximum allowed under the Fiscal Year 2024 annual limit. This situation will be continually monitored, and any necessary adjustments will be made accordingly.
E. VISA AVAILABILITY IN THE EMPLOYMENT-BASED THIRD (EB-3) PREFERENCE CATEGORY
High demand in the Employment Third category will most likely necessitate retrogression of the worldwide final action date (including Mexico and Philippines) in the next month to hold number use within the maximum allowed under the Fiscal Year 2024 annual limit. This situation will be continually monitored, and any necessary adjustments will be made accordingly.
The first thing to say is that the RoW cut-off dates move differently than the Visa Bulletin cut-off dates for India and China given that India and China (particularly India) see much more demand and so the dates move much slower. I hope to write separately about the lack of movement of India cut-off dates including the emergence of a cut-off date for EB-1 India which I think is here to stay.
I am definitely interested in the movement (or more precisely, LACK of movement) for India and China, but this post focuses on RoW (Rest of World), which means all countries other than India and China.
As a reminder:
An individual is “chargeable” based on their country of birth, not country of citizenship.
If you were born in UAE and you are a citizen of India, then you are in the RoW queue.
If you are now a citizen of Canada but you were born in India, you are in the India queue.
There is no changing where you were born although the law does allow for “cross-chargeability” based on the country of birth of your spouse (not child).
If you were born in China but your spouse was born in Japan, then you can use your spouse’s country of birth (Japan) to be subject to the RoW queue.
Notwithstanding the ominous end notes in the June 2024 Visa Bulletin, quoted above, somewhat weirdly, in the July 2024 Visa Bulletin, the cut-off dates for EB-2 and EB-3 RoW (from Chart A) were:
EB-2 RoW = March 15, 2023
EB-3 RoW = December 1, 2021
So, the EB-2 RoW cut-off date moved up from January 15, 2023, to March 15, 2023, which is a “new high water mark” - meaning that there are people in this category who can file I-485 applications or get immigrant visas in July 2024 who have been unable to do so. The July 2024 Visa Bulletin cut-off date for EB-2 RoW moved forward further than ever before. This is good news!
However, the EB-3 RoW cut-off date in the July 2024 Visa Bulletin moved back November 22, 2022, to December 1, 2021, meaning that the EB-3 RoW cut-off date “retrogressed” for almost a year. This is definitely bad news!
Backward movement like what occurred to EB-3 RoW is startling and frustrating, but sadly there is a logic to it.
Further, and importantly, the July 2024 Visa Bulletin has another ominous end note for EB-3 RoW:
D. RETROGRESSION IN THE EMPLOYMENT-BASED THIRD (EB-3) PREFERENCE CATEGORY
As readers were informed was possible in Item D of the June 2024 Visa Bulletin, it has become necessary to retrogress the worldwide EB-3 final action date (including Mexico and Philippines) effective in July. Given continued high demand and number use in this category, it will likely be necessary to either further retrogress the final action date or make the category “Unavailable” in August. This situation will be continually monitored, and any necessary adjustments will be made accordingly.
[Emphasis added]
What Happened to EB-3 RoW?
Presumably what happened from the issuance of the June 2024 Visa Bulletin (in mid-May) to the issuance of the July 2024 Visa Bulletin (issued in mid-June) is that during that month, the USCIS and particularly U.S. consulates issued a lot of EB-3 based I-485 approvals and immigrant visas for EB-3 (Third Preference) immigrants in June 2024 such that the annual limit for EB-3 green cards is now almost reached. This relative surge in approvals was apparently not expected by the Visa Bulletin authors in mid-May 2024 when the June 2024 Visa Bulletin was published.
Keep in mind that unlike EB-2, a lot of EB-3 immigrants get their green cards through immigrant visa processing whereas the vast majority of EB-2 immigrants are already in the United States on temporary work visas (like H-1B) and seeking to “adjust status” through the I-485 process.
The Philippines has a large number of EB-3 nurses and other health care workers not necessarily eligible for H-1B visas, and Mexico has a relative large number of EB-3 workers in agriculture and construction. For many months (well, actually - years) the U.S. consulates have been bogged down as a result of the pandemic-era shutdowns and re-opening; but it seems that now as of May 2024 and June 2024, U.S. consulates worldwide are, for the most part, functioning at ‘full force’ (again, for the most part) and this activity means that the U.S. consulates worldwide are able to issue immigrant visas at a good pace. But the faster that U.S. consulates issue EB-3 immigrant visas and the faster that USCIS approves EB-3 based I-485s, it means that overall the government is “using up” the annual allotment of EB-3 RoW green cards available.
If the July 2024 Visa Bulletin shows a “U” for EB-3 RoW, as anticipated, it means that essentially there are no green cards available for that category for that month. Keep in mind that the U.S. government’s fiscal year will end on September 30, 2024, and running out of immigrant visas for a certain EB category in August is actually (weirdly) a good thing as it demonstrates that the government is capable of using up all the immigrant visas (green cards) for a particular category as there have been many years where the government did NOT use all the green cards and those are wasted forever.
What Happened to EB-2 RoW?
Given the forward movement of EB-2 RoW in the July 2024 Visa Bulletin, contrary to the end note that appeared in the June 2024 Visa Bulletin, it would seem that the Visa Bulletin authors at the U.S. Department of State now believe that more I-485 applications need to be approved in order to meet the allotment for the EB-2 RoW category before the end of the fiscal year. By moving up the cut-off date for EB-2 RoW, the Visa Bulletin authors are able to get more cases approved that are already pending and also allow more cases into the pipeline.
Moving up the cut-off date so late in the fiscal year is clearly a sign that the Visa Bulletin authors are worried they will not have enough cases ready to be approved by the end of September.
What happens now?
If we take the Visa Bulletin authors at their word, recognizing that they are often wrong (as they were with EB-2 RoW in June), but if we accept the end note from July 2024, it means that the “retrogression” of EB-3 will reach its endpoint with a “U” on the August 2024 Visa Bulletin. As noted above, if a “U” is issued for EB-3 RoW in August 2024, then it means there are no immigrant visas available for that category.
It could definitely be the case that for the August 2024 Visa Bulletin and September 2024 Visa Bulletin, there will be a “U” for EB-3 RoW, and then there could be (and should be) forward movement on the cut-off date for EB-3 RoW in October 2024, which is the start of fiscal year 2025 (FY2025).
To anticipate the cut-off dates in October, you don’t have to guess wildly. You can simply look at the July 2024 Visa Bulletin’s Chart B.
It is well-established that often at the start of a new fiscal year, USCIS will start to use Chart B which in theory gives you insight into where cut-off dates are going.
In the July 2024 Visa Bulletin, the cut-off date for Chart B for EB-3 RoW is February 1, 2023. My hope and expectation is that after the EB-3 RoW cut-off date goes backwards and then vanishes into a “U” - it will come back in October 2024 at the cut-off date of February 1, 2023.
As for EB-2 RoW, that is more of a muddle to sort out because the ‘delta’ between the Chart A date and Chart B date is only one week.
In the July 2024 Visa Bulletin, these are the EB-2 RoW dates for Chart A and Chart B:
July 2024 Visa Bulletin EB-2 RoW (Chart A) = March 15, 2023.
July 2024 Visa Bulletin EB-2 RoW (Chart B) = March 22, 2023.
I am not aware of the U.S. Department of State’s Visa Bulletin authors providing any visibility on their thinking about a situation like this but my best guess is that by moving the EB-2 RoW cut-off date forward in July 2024 to a “new high water mark” - the Visa Bulletin authors are uncertain about demand. They don’t know how many new I-485 applications will be filed for EB-2 RoW based on the new movement and new high water mark.
So I believe they need to move the cut-off date forward and then observe the number of filings in July and perhaps August to re-assess.
While this is not based on a July 2024 end note or commentary directly from any U.S. Department of State official, the end note from June 2024 might still be instructive such that I do NOT think there will be any ADDITIONAL FORWARD MOVEMENT of EB-2 RoW for August 2024 and September 2024. It is likely that October 2024 will be the first possibility for real movement again on EB-2 RoW (although I am happy to be wrong)!
I realize the above is probably as clear as mud. The bottom line is that EB-2 and EB-3 RoW move slowly and erratically and that pattern is not likely to change any time soon, barring a change in the law or interpretations of the law.
Thanks for reading!
Wow Robert !
Your way of explaining things in a simple manner is really admirable, Thanks for the crystal clear post.